Good Entry Point for Tesla Stock? Not Just Yet, Says Analyst



Last Friday, Tesla (TSLA) announced Q1 delivery numbers, in the process crushing the estimates. Wall Street applauded Musk and Co.’s performance and duly sent shares higher in the subsequent session.

Overall, Q1 deliveries hit a record 184,800 vehicles, amounting to a 109% year-over-year uptick and coming in well ahead of the Street’s 172,230 forecast. Model 3/Y deliveries increased by 140% compared to the same period last year and were up by 13% sequentially to reach 182,780, also far higher than the consensus estimate for 160,230 deliveries.

Blighting the picture somewhat were the disappointing figures for the Model S/X, which came in at 2,020 (down by 83% year-over-year) vs the Street’s forecast for 12,060 deliveries. However, there were mitigating factors at play here, as the global chip shortage caused the drop.

While the overall numbers impressed many on the Street, RBC’s Joseph Spak thinks they will do little to change the conversation around the EV pioneer.

“The better-than-expected 1Q21 deliveries are likely to be well received, even if the bar was recently lowered given concerns over semi-impact,” Spak said. “But, we see little to move the mid-term debate between bulls (whose thesis centers around higher BEV penetration, TSLA maintaining very high share, and optionality from software, energy and other) and bears (where central argument remains valuation).”

Spak anticipates the supply chain issues to keep on having an impact in 2021, and therefore, lowered his delivery forecast for the year from 860,000 to 825,000.

Due to the lower S/X deliveries, there’s also a trim to the analyst’s 1Q21 revenue estimate, which drops from $10.8 billion to $10.5 billion (Street has $10.1 billion). Spak’s diluted adjusted EPS forecast for Q1 is also slashed – from $0.97 to $0.88, yet is still above consensus, which calls for $0.83.

In the Tesla debate, Spak sits between the bulls and bears, recommending a Hold rating. Spak’s $725 price target suggests shares could move 5% higher from current levels. (To watch Spak’s track record, click here)

Looking at the consensus breakdown, overall, the rest of the Street is of a similar view. The stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 10 buys and Holds, each, and 7 additional Sells. Given the $681.48 average price target, the stock is expected to stay range bound for the foreseeable future. (See Tesla stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.


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